Case Study – Flu Risk Forecasting – Page 5

Analysis & Insights – Objective 3

Assign risk levels based on vulnerable populations to identify where and when resources should be deployed.

Q5 – Which states are most at risk?

Shading represents the size of the 65+ population, while circle size indicates the number of influenza-related deaths.

High concentrations of elderly populations and corresponding deaths are evident in states like California, Texas, Florida, and New York—highlighting key areas of concern.

States were grouped by 2017 65+ population into low (<500k), medium (500k–1.25m), and high-risk (>1.25m) categories.

The classification provides a structured foundation for understanding mortality risk and targeting resource planning efforts.

A strong positive linear relationship is observed between population size and influenza deaths. States classified as high-risk tend to cluster in the upper-right quadrant, validating the risk groupings.

Risk levels correspond closely to mortality, with high-risk states showing both larger populations and higher death counts.

Higher weekly death counts are predominantly driven by high-risk states. Once death frequencies exceed 100 per week, nearly all instances are attributed to high-risk states.

Weekly mortality is heavily skewed toward high-risk groups, confirming their outsized burden during severe weeks.

Separate bar charts compare population and death totals by risk profile. Both show a near-linear relationship: as population risk increases, so does mortality.

**Population Size:** High-risk states collectively account for the majority of the elderly population.
**Deaths:** Mortality distribution mirrors population size, reinforcing the logic of risk-based segmentation.

Q6 – Based on risk, when, where, and how many staff should be deployed?

The line chart further illustrates seasonal variation by risk level. High-risk states show sharp fluctuations in winter months, whereas low-risk states exhibit more stable patterns.

Temporal trends reinforce the value of risk profiles: high-risk states experience larger and more volatile death counts.

Forecast models for 2018/2019 reveal pronounced seasonal spikes in high-risk states, particularly during peak winter months.

Seasonal peaks are most acute in high-risk states, pointing to the importance of proactive staff planning during flu season.

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